Saturday, May 12, 2007

How to Calculate Slugging Percentage


What is Slugging Percentage? As the term implies, slugging percentage is baseball’s way of measuring a hitter’s overall power and effectiveness. It’s obviously much easier just to compare home run numbers or RBI’s, but using those statistics alone takes some of the fun out of baseball statistics. Put concisely, slugging percentage is calculated as the total number of bases accumulated by a hitter divided by the number of official at-bats for that particular hitter.

How to Calculate a Hitter’s Slugging Percentage The most involved part of calculating slugging percentage is sorting out what counts as an at-bat and what does not. Anytime a batter is walked, hit by a pitch, or sacrifices (such as bunting or hitting a fly ball in order to move a runner to the next base), it is not counted as an official at-bat. Everything else (anything from a strike out to a home run) is considered an at-bat. To calculate slugging percentage, divide the total number of bases accrued by a batter, and divide it by the number of at-bats for the hitter. For instance, if a hitter begins the season and in his first time up to bat he hits a home run, his slugging percentage is 4.000 (four bases divided by one at bat). If a hitter goes one for three in a game and hits one single, his slugging percentage for that game is 0.333 (one base divided by three at bats). Slugging percentage is usually calculated out to three decimals, such as 0.550.

Friday, April 20, 2007

2007 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates by Position


A year ago, who would have predicted the seasons that Ryan Howard, Jeremy Bonderman, Brandon Webb and Brian McCann would have? Predicting breakout candidates is one of the most enjoyable aspects for any baseball fan. The excitement builds during November and December when free agents are signing and you see pictures of players holding up their brand new uniforms and talking about how excited they are to play for their new team. Next thing you know, you are reading about how well this player's swing will play in their new home ballpark and then finally you hear from Peter Gammons about how well your sleeper candidate is performing down in Florida. At that point, you are sold. You think it's a given that Josh Beckett will win 20 games on his way to his first Cy Young, or that Kerry Wood/Mark Prior are going to revert back to the prowess they showed in 2003. Unfortunately, a month later, your perspective has drastically changed and you are then left scurrying to find the next Jered Weaver or Justin Verlander. The moral of this sad story is that the best place to find breakout candidates isn't by scouring the transaction pages of your local paper in January, your best bets are usually right under your nose hiding in obscurity because they haven't made any headlines during the off-season.

Did you notice the one thing that Howard, Bonderman, Webb and McCann have in common? They didn't get much publicity in the off-season prior to 2006 because they weren't traded or signed to a big contract. Most breakout lists include players that are switching teams, but with that comes a risk. For every Alfonso Soriano, there is a Josh Beckett, or Carl Pavano, or even Randy Johnson. Nothing is guaranteed in sports - especially expecting someone to raise their level of play by 200% while getting accustomed to a new team, new league, new city, new ballpark, etc, etc.

While some breakout seasons are flukes - see Brady Anderson (circa 1996), Matt Nokes ('87) and Rich Aurilla/Luis Gonzalez ('01) - many of them are somewhat predictable. A breakout as extreme as Ryan Howard's 2006 campaign is rare, and probably won't be seen again for quite a while. After all, how many 2nd year players do you know that have hit over 50 home runs? But, players such as Garrett Atkins and Brian McCann showed characteristics in previous years that they were primed for a big season at some point in their future.

Below is a list, by position, of players that are ready to breakout in 2007. Most of these guys you may not have heard much about, and they almost certainly won't be top 10 round picks this year, but that could change in a single season's time. The analysis from below is based more on plate discipline and slugging percentage than HR/RBI or even off-season attention and you will notice that each player listed below will be on the same team in 2007 as they were in 2006.

Catchers - Russell Martin (LAD) is the obvious candidate here. He posted a .352 OBP in his rookie campaign to go along with a .436 SLG and 10 stolen bases. The slugging percentage isn't outstanding, but for a 23 year old catcher, it's a sign of good things to come. If he continues to run (and he has done so in the past with 39 career minor league SB's in less than 400 games), and also shows normal improvement at the plate he could be a fantasy monster at some point. It won't happen in 2007, but he will make progress, a potential 20/20 guy behind the plate would be a nice steal for the 15th round. (Also considered - Mike Napoli - LAA)

1st Base - Lyle Overbay (TOR) is a guy that's been around for a while, so he should slip below the radar on draft day. Most guys look for 1st/2nd year guys to break out, but Overbay doesn't fall into that category since 2007 will be his 7th season at the big league level. He had 46 doubles and 22 home runs in 2006 and it's not a stretch to think that some of those doubles will turn into home runs in 2007. If that happens, he will quickly fall into the 30 home run range and will be a bargain as a 15th round pick. (Also considered - Prince Fielder - MIL)

2nd Base - Ian Kinsler (TEX) was a hotshot prospect coming into 2006, but he missed a lot of time early before putting up very solid numbers for a rookie and somehow doesn't get much attention anymore. Kinsler ended the season with a .286/.348/.454 line to go along with 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases in only 120 games. Those number prorated out to 160 game season would result in 19 home runs and 15 steals. This is for a guy that hit 23 home runs and stole 19 bases in 2005 at AAA as a 23 year old, so 20/20 is in his future and why shouldn't that happen in 2007. It is certainly a possibility. With the lack of depth at 2nd base, reach for this guy and draft him a little earlier than you'd want. He's a worthy gamble at a very weak position. (Also considered - Howie Kendrick -LAA and Rickie Weeks - MIL)

3rd Base - Ryan Zimmerman is a guy everyone is overlooking due to the weak lineup that will be around him in 2007. He had a great season for a rookie - with a line of .287/.351/.471 to go along with 20 home runs and 11 stolen bases. It's conceivable that his numbers could slip with the loss of Soriano to the Nationals lineup. However, he will be moved into the #3 spot in the order and should see increased RBI opportunities to go along with what should be a .300/.365/.510 season. (Also considered - nobody) Shortstop - Stephen Drew (ARI) hopefully won't spend the first 5 years of his career on these lists like his brother did 5-10 years ago. He burst onto the scene in 2006 with a .316/.359/.517 line in 209 AB's. His walk rate will need to improve in order for him to join the top players at his position, but he should be good for .300/.340/.480 in full time duty during 2007, and he did have good OBP and plate discipline numbers in the minors. Just don't expect much speed here (only 6 steals in his minor league career) but he was a career .315/.385/.546 hitter during his time in the minors with a 79/117 BB/K ratio. He will be a top 30 pick shortly. (Also considered - Khalil Greene - SD)

Outfield - Carlos Quentin (ARI) is a highly regarded prospect and is assured of the right field job after making a good impression in 2006. His minor league numbers show a potential 2nd round pick - .309/.427/.522 with 160 BB's and 173 K's - and he didn't disappoint in his 166 AB's at the big league level last year, hitting .253/.342/.530. Quentin's value should appreciate more quickly than the more highly touted Delmon Young and he's capable of hitting .290/.350/.550 in 2007.

Starting Pitching - Cole Hamels (PHI) showed outstanding potential in 2006. Both in AAA and at the ML level. He ended the year with a 9.9 K/9 ratio at the ML level during his rookie season. This is on top of his career minor league rate of 12.4 k/9 in 201 innings. His problem throughout his minor league life was simply staying healthy, and if he can do so in 2007, he's a bona fide Cy Young candidate. I think he strikes out 10 guys per 9 innings, and enters the 2008 season as a top 5 pitcher. All pitchers come with more risk than hitters, so grab Hamels when you can.

Closer - Chad Orvella (TB) isn't even being talked about by the Devil Rays as a candidate for the closer's position. It's not generally a good idea to target a pitcher that's own team isn't considering for the closer spot, but Orvella's minor league numbers are too good to ignore. In almost 150 innings, he struck out 215 (k/9 of 13) and walked 26 (bb/9 of 1.6). You may not want to draft him now, but watch him if/when McClung struggles.

There you have it. If you focus on these players in the 2nd half of your draft, you will be in good shape heading into the 2007 season, so sit back, relax and let's PLAY BALL!

thebaseballjunkie runs http://www.thebaseballjunkie.com and offers statistical insight regarding fantasty baseball draft rankings, trades and much more.


Friday, April 13, 2007

Opening Day Already Began


Officially, stats do not begin to count until April 1st, but that doesn't mean things aren’t already happening. Information is being generated every day, players are becoming more valuable through weight training and by improving various elements of their game. Conversely, players are also regressing; getting hurt and pouting about their contractual situations. This is where the potential draft day winners separate themselves from the managers that play for fun. Going into draft day, all the managers in your league will have their fantasy magazines and draft day ranking cheat sheets. The first day a fantasy magazine hits the stands, 5 to 7 percent of that information is ALREADY out of date. Some things never get updated in the first place because that information was not available at the time of publication. Unless you get extremely lucky you will be one, two or even ten steps behind that devoted league mate that has been carefully paying attention.

Having the updated information is just the first step. It's also about being able to accurately process through this information. There is so much information out there; it's enough to deter you from even bothering to keep up. Because we don’t actually play the game on the field, our game is information and how to manage it.

An awkward example (if you haven’t heard) is news broke earlier this month that John Smoltz and his wife are getting a divorce after 16 years of marriage (my heart goes out to them). But as cold hearted as it sounds, will this development have any possible fantasy ramifications toward his performance? Can he play through it or will he lose his edge and just run through the motions? The instant evaluation might be, Smoltz will go into the season less than stellar and won't be on top of his game, thus lowering his value. The media spin around the situation is that the 17 year old veteran will not be affected by his personal issues. With the weeks following the news, articles and published interviews have already been written, covering Smoltz as loose and has been clowning around in the locker room. He's been saying all the right things and positively declaring that his faith through his religion will carry him through this time period of his life. (Possibly returning his value back to where it was before the news broke.) But, here’s the caveat: there isn’t a professional athlete alive that is willing to announce to a reporter or admit to themselves even, that his performance isn't going to be up to par. The non-verbal picture has Smoltz reporting to camp noticeably thinner and he himself has acknowledge he will need to re-gain 10 more lbs to get back into playing shape. Which assumably means he’s not eating right or working out at a level he’s accustomed to.

My take on the situation is that Smoltz has always been a straight shooter and given what he’s shown through out the years, his mental make up leaves evidence that he’ll continue to be highly professional and be able to produce at a level we’re used to seeing. His career path has already brought him through pitching past 4 elbow operations, conversion from starter to closer and then back to starter, while being a major contributor for the 14 time pennant winning Atlanta Braves. (Winning is the truth to all the BS.) Aside from his rookie season, his ERA has been over 4 just once over his career and the future Hall of Famer’s value should, at worst be a steady #2 starting pitcher for your fantasy squad. I will even go out on a limb and say we can expect a special season out of Smoltz. My personal projected use case has Smoltz using baseball as his own personal nirvana and doing what matters most to an old school gamer, and that is being focused on winning baseball games. Which will correlate to positive fantasy statistical production.

However, even after this analysis, the diagnosis can change. Pay attention to Smoltz’s weight and Spring training progress. Does it look like he’s getting back to game shape? Or does he sound like he’s giving the same old motivational speech again and again. The key to the game is paying attention and process through the ever changing flow of information.

Name:

WinningFantasyBaseball Your ONE stop, for the latest and most important fantasy baseball news and perspective. Gone is the play-it-safe, generic, my-mom-could-have-told-me to trade for Albert Pujols fantasy baseball insite and in with one fan's see-it-for what-it-is, lets do what it takes to win this league.


Sunday, March 18, 2007

What to Consider When Choosing Fastpitch Softball Equipment


Before purchasing your Fastpitch softball equipment, here are some tips to consider before making your final selections.

Most companies now are really concentrating on the growing popularity of the game of Fastpitch softball. They have dedicated a great deal of research and development into the proper fit and the demands of the female athlete. In many of the top vendors, such as Mizuno, Easton, Louisville, Ringor and Schutt they have sections of their inventory dedicated specifically to female athletes.

Selecting fastpitch softball bats is pretty straightforward. All bats legal for fastpitch play must be stamped with an official softball on the bat. The one thing to keep in mind is if the bat is a slow-pitch or fastpitch bat. Most but not all slow-pitch bats are legal in fastpitch play, but must have an ASA stamp on the bat.

Choosing catchers gear in the past was simple because the vendors did not make female specific catchers gear. Today you have a wide variety of choices from manufactures who make catchers gear specifically for fastpitch softball. The cut and fit is designed to properly fit a female frame. Keep in mind when looking for gear for your girl’s team.

When looking for fielding gloves the same is true. Top manufactures like Mizuno, Glovesmith, Louisville Slugger, and Rawlings make female specific gloves in their choices. Typically the gloves are a little larger to accommodate a larger ball than a baseball. The pocket and web of these gloves are usually deeper and wider than a baseball glove. The fingerstalls are narrower and shorter to help fit the smaller hand of females. The size range on these gloves usually ranges from 12"-13.5". Most manufactures try to put an adjustable strap on these specific gloves to allow the athlete to fit the glove down on their wrist for a secure fit. Female athletes can keep this choice in mind when selecting a fastpitch fielding glove.

Making a choice on new bating gloves is very similar to a fielding glove. If you are having trouble finding batting glove, the finger stalls and wrist opening are smaller to fit a female hand better.

A few companies Mizuno, Ringor, make female specific softball shoes. These shoes are not as wide as a unisex. Shoes and are developed by top female Olympic athletes to fit and perform to the demands of fastpitch softball players at all levels.

Keep in mind that you have choices when you are getting ready to make purchases for your female athletes. In today’s market you have a wide variety of choices from different companies that will accommodate your needs. The fit and performance is worth the time spent in choosing the right equipment.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

New York Yankees Baseball Cards: A Collectors Hobby For AllWhat American doesn’t love a great game of baseball? When you pair the world’s greatest game with one of the world’s greatest cities you come away with the New York Yankees. The New York Yankees are well known as they have consistently had big names on their team as well as many of the winning streaks of the ages. The Yankees go back 100 years, a time that many of us aren’t familiar with, unless we look back at New York Yankees baseball cards.

Are you a baseball fan that assumes that Yankees baseball cards are for kids and not something that you would consider taking a peak at? It doesn’t matter what your age, you are never too young or too old to appreciate a great team and the Yankees cards that represent some of the most fantastic baseball players the game has ever seen. Think about it, the Yankees baseball cards for Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson, and more are out there and many of them are worth quite a bit of money. If you love to collect things and you simply want to gain more knowledge about the history of the team then baseball cards is a great way to do it because there is a lot of information about each player on the back of the card.

Are you just getting into collecting New York Yankees cards and you assume that this is a relatively new collector’s hobby? Don’t kid yourself! Chances are your grandparents and perhaps even your great grandparents could collect these tidbits of baseball trivia as they were packaged with caramel as well as tobacco as early as the late 19th century. While they started out as a freebie with candy or tobacco they have taken on a life of their own, with collectors buying whole seasons worth of baseball cards at one time—and not for just one team, either!

The New York Yankees cards are a lot of fun to collect because they are generally quite valuable, more so as you go back in time. Because so many baseball greats were on this team, leading them to 26 World Series Championships, there are many players from this legendary team that are worth a whole lot of money, the pride of the collectors that have them and yet they are very rare.

There are many ways that you can begin to collect the baseball cards of this legendary team. The easiest cards to get will be from this year or last and as you go back in time it might get a bit more difficult to find the more popular players. That’s what is fun about collecting these cards; the search! Of course, when the search ends you have to have the funds to bring the card home, too! This is a hobby for the young and the old and might even serve as a baseball history lesson as well.

Baseball: America's GameBaseball is woven into the fabric of American society; it’s simply a part of what we do. Children as young as four and five are getting behind home plate and swinging their bats for the first time and mothers and fathers are decorating nurseries with baseballs, gloves and bats. It doesn’t matter where you go in the United States; you are never too far away from a great baseball game or a small corner shop that sells baseball cards.

To some there is a baseball season, but when you think about it baseball is always in season. Baseball is a fan’s sport and many of them are constantly collecting memorabilia, clothing, and baseball cards of their favorite players or teams. Many don’t think about how lucrative this business really is, but it is making billions of dollars all year around, not just from the first day of the season to the last swing of the World Series. Shirts, hats, bumper stickers, sweatshirts, jerseys, and jackets are all a great way to show your loyalty to your favorite baseball team.

Many of the older generations of Americans are very familiar with baseball card collecting. You may think that this type of collecting is a thing of the past, but it is anything but that. Think about it, all of those old New York Yankees baseball cards that you wanted to find as a child are still out there, and they are only more valuable. While past generations got their cards from caramel, tobacco, or gum these days generations are buying whole teams, leagues, and seasons at a time. While the way that baseball cards are collected may have changed a bit the hobby is still alive and well and being enjoyed by people of all ages. This is a great hobby for parents and grandparents to pass onto their children and grandchildren as it will allow them to spend time together and share a passion.

Of course, there are still those cards that everyone wants to come across, such as Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe Dimaggio, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, and so many of the great New York Yankees that allowed the team to experience a whopping 26 World Series wins. Young and old collectors of today are still looking for those seemingly out of reach baseball cards along with some of the newer players, like Derek Jeter and others, that are keeping baseball the integral part of our society that it has always been. Today some of the more exciting cards can be found on the Internet through wonderful bidding websites and more.

While the active rosters of every baseball team will invariably change there is still something enchanting about the sport. Whether you watch the game from home on your television or those perfect box seats on the third base line, there simply is something great about watching your favorite team get out there and hit the ball. Baseball is a great game whether you are playing or watching, so it simply makes sense that we collect items like clothing and cards, to commemorate our favorite players past and present.