2007 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates by Position


A year ago, who would have predicted the seasons that Ryan Howard, Jeremy Bonderman, Brandon Webb and Brian McCann would have? Predicting breakout candidates is one of the most enjoyable aspects for any baseball fan. The excitement builds during November and December when free agents are signing and you see pictures of players holding up their brand new uniforms and talking about how excited they are to play for their new team. Next thing you know, you are reading about how well this player's swing will play in their new home ballpark and then finally you hear from Peter Gammons about how well your sleeper candidate is performing down in Florida. At that point, you are sold. You think it's a given that Josh Beckett will win 20 games on his way to his first Cy Young, or that Kerry Wood/Mark Prior are going to revert back to the prowess they showed in 2003. Unfortunately, a month later, your perspective has drastically changed and you are then left scurrying to find the next Jered Weaver or Justin Verlander. The moral of this sad story is that the best place to find breakout candidates isn't by scouring the transaction pages of your local paper in January, your best bets are usually right under your nose hiding in obscurity because they haven't made any headlines during the off-season.

Did you notice the one thing that Howard, Bonderman, Webb and McCann have in common? They didn't get much publicity in the off-season prior to 2006 because they weren't traded or signed to a big contract. Most breakout lists include players that are switching teams, but with that comes a risk. For every Alfonso Soriano, there is a Josh Beckett, or Carl Pavano, or even Randy Johnson. Nothing is guaranteed in sports - especially expecting someone to raise their level of play by 200% while getting accustomed to a new team, new league, new city, new ballpark, etc, etc.

While some breakout seasons are flukes - see Brady Anderson (circa 1996), Matt Nokes ('87) and Rich Aurilla/Luis Gonzalez ('01) - many of them are somewhat predictable. A breakout as extreme as Ryan Howard's 2006 campaign is rare, and probably won't be seen again for quite a while. After all, how many 2nd year players do you know that have hit over 50 home runs? But, players such as Garrett Atkins and Brian McCann showed characteristics in previous years that they were primed for a big season at some point in their future.

Below is a list, by position, of players that are ready to breakout in 2007. Most of these guys you may not have heard much about, and they almost certainly won't be top 10 round picks this year, but that could change in a single season's time. The analysis from below is based more on plate discipline and slugging percentage than HR/RBI or even off-season attention and you will notice that each player listed below will be on the same team in 2007 as they were in 2006.

Catchers - Russell Martin (LAD) is the obvious candidate here. He posted a .352 OBP in his rookie campaign to go along with a .436 SLG and 10 stolen bases. The slugging percentage isn't outstanding, but for a 23 year old catcher, it's a sign of good things to come. If he continues to run (and he has done so in the past with 39 career minor league SB's in less than 400 games), and also shows normal improvement at the plate he could be a fantasy monster at some point. It won't happen in 2007, but he will make progress, a potential 20/20 guy behind the plate would be a nice steal for the 15th round. (Also considered - Mike Napoli - LAA)

1st Base - Lyle Overbay (TOR) is a guy that's been around for a while, so he should slip below the radar on draft day. Most guys look for 1st/2nd year guys to break out, but Overbay doesn't fall into that category since 2007 will be his 7th season at the big league level. He had 46 doubles and 22 home runs in 2006 and it's not a stretch to think that some of those doubles will turn into home runs in 2007. If that happens, he will quickly fall into the 30 home run range and will be a bargain as a 15th round pick. (Also considered - Prince Fielder - MIL)

2nd Base - Ian Kinsler (TEX) was a hotshot prospect coming into 2006, but he missed a lot of time early before putting up very solid numbers for a rookie and somehow doesn't get much attention anymore. Kinsler ended the season with a .286/.348/.454 line to go along with 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases in only 120 games. Those number prorated out to 160 game season would result in 19 home runs and 15 steals. This is for a guy that hit 23 home runs and stole 19 bases in 2005 at AAA as a 23 year old, so 20/20 is in his future and why shouldn't that happen in 2007. It is certainly a possibility. With the lack of depth at 2nd base, reach for this guy and draft him a little earlier than you'd want. He's a worthy gamble at a very weak position. (Also considered - Howie Kendrick -LAA and Rickie Weeks - MIL)

3rd Base - Ryan Zimmerman is a guy everyone is overlooking due to the weak lineup that will be around him in 2007. He had a great season for a rookie - with a line of .287/.351/.471 to go along with 20 home runs and 11 stolen bases. It's conceivable that his numbers could slip with the loss of Soriano to the Nationals lineup. However, he will be moved into the #3 spot in the order and should see increased RBI opportunities to go along with what should be a .300/.365/.510 season. (Also considered - nobody) Shortstop - Stephen Drew (ARI) hopefully won't spend the first 5 years of his career on these lists like his brother did 5-10 years ago. He burst onto the scene in 2006 with a .316/.359/.517 line in 209 AB's. His walk rate will need to improve in order for him to join the top players at his position, but he should be good for .300/.340/.480 in full time duty during 2007, and he did have good OBP and plate discipline numbers in the minors. Just don't expect much speed here (only 6 steals in his minor league career) but he was a career .315/.385/.546 hitter during his time in the minors with a 79/117 BB/K ratio. He will be a top 30 pick shortly. (Also considered - Khalil Greene - SD)

Outfield - Carlos Quentin (ARI) is a highly regarded prospect and is assured of the right field job after making a good impression in 2006. His minor league numbers show a potential 2nd round pick - .309/.427/.522 with 160 BB's and 173 K's - and he didn't disappoint in his 166 AB's at the big league level last year, hitting .253/.342/.530. Quentin's value should appreciate more quickly than the more highly touted Delmon Young and he's capable of hitting .290/.350/.550 in 2007.

Starting Pitching - Cole Hamels (PHI) showed outstanding potential in 2006. Both in AAA and at the ML level. He ended the year with a 9.9 K/9 ratio at the ML level during his rookie season. This is on top of his career minor league rate of 12.4 k/9 in 201 innings. His problem throughout his minor league life was simply staying healthy, and if he can do so in 2007, he's a bona fide Cy Young candidate. I think he strikes out 10 guys per 9 innings, and enters the 2008 season as a top 5 pitcher. All pitchers come with more risk than hitters, so grab Hamels when you can.

Closer - Chad Orvella (TB) isn't even being talked about by the Devil Rays as a candidate for the closer's position. It's not generally a good idea to target a pitcher that's own team isn't considering for the closer spot, but Orvella's minor league numbers are too good to ignore. In almost 150 innings, he struck out 215 (k/9 of 13) and walked 26 (bb/9 of 1.6). You may not want to draft him now, but watch him if/when McClung struggles.

There you have it. If you focus on these players in the 2nd half of your draft, you will be in good shape heading into the 2007 season, so sit back, relax and let's PLAY BALL!

thebaseballjunkie runs http://www.thebaseballjunkie.com and offers statistical insight regarding fantasty baseball draft rankings, trades and much more.

Opening Day Already Began


Officially, stats do not begin to count until April 1st, but that doesn't mean things aren’t already happening. Information is being generated every day, players are becoming more valuable through weight training and by improving various elements of their game. Conversely, players are also regressing; getting hurt and pouting about their contractual situations. This is where the potential draft day winners separate themselves from the managers that play for fun. Going into draft day, all the managers in your league will have their fantasy magazines and draft day ranking cheat sheets. The first day a fantasy magazine hits the stands, 5 to 7 percent of that information is ALREADY out of date. Some things never get updated in the first place because that information was not available at the time of publication. Unless you get extremely lucky you will be one, two or even ten steps behind that devoted league mate that has been carefully paying attention.

Having the updated information is just the first step. It's also about being able to accurately process through this information. There is so much information out there; it's enough to deter you from even bothering to keep up. Because we don’t actually play the game on the field, our game is information and how to manage it.

An awkward example (if you haven’t heard) is news broke earlier this month that John Smoltz and his wife are getting a divorce after 16 years of marriage (my heart goes out to them). But as cold hearted as it sounds, will this development have any possible fantasy ramifications toward his performance? Can he play through it or will he lose his edge and just run through the motions? The instant evaluation might be, Smoltz will go into the season less than stellar and won't be on top of his game, thus lowering his value. The media spin around the situation is that the 17 year old veteran will not be affected by his personal issues. With the weeks following the news, articles and published interviews have already been written, covering Smoltz as loose and has been clowning around in the locker room. He's been saying all the right things and positively declaring that his faith through his religion will carry him through this time period of his life. (Possibly returning his value back to where it was before the news broke.) But, here’s the caveat: there isn’t a professional athlete alive that is willing to announce to a reporter or admit to themselves even, that his performance isn't going to be up to par. The non-verbal picture has Smoltz reporting to camp noticeably thinner and he himself has acknowledge he will need to re-gain 10 more lbs to get back into playing shape. Which assumably means he’s not eating right or working out at a level he’s accustomed to.

My take on the situation is that Smoltz has always been a straight shooter and given what he’s shown through out the years, his mental make up leaves evidence that he’ll continue to be highly professional and be able to produce at a level we’re used to seeing. His career path has already brought him through pitching past 4 elbow operations, conversion from starter to closer and then back to starter, while being a major contributor for the 14 time pennant winning Atlanta Braves. (Winning is the truth to all the BS.) Aside from his rookie season, his ERA has been over 4 just once over his career and the future Hall of Famer’s value should, at worst be a steady #2 starting pitcher for your fantasy squad. I will even go out on a limb and say we can expect a special season out of Smoltz. My personal projected use case has Smoltz using baseball as his own personal nirvana and doing what matters most to an old school gamer, and that is being focused on winning baseball games. Which will correlate to positive fantasy statistical production.

However, even after this analysis, the diagnosis can change. Pay attention to Smoltz’s weight and Spring training progress. Does it look like he’s getting back to game shape? Or does he sound like he’s giving the same old motivational speech again and again. The key to the game is paying attention and process through the ever changing flow of information.

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